Experts warn the regime may have been ‘serially underestimated’
Israel has warned major cities across the globe, including London, Paris and Berlin, could all be under threat from Iranian missiles after the regime launched a strike on a British military base in the Chagos Islands.
Two ballistic missiles were fired towards Diego Garcia, a base in the Indian Ocean jointly operated by the US and the UK, on Friday night.
Sources reported that one of the missiles failed in flight, while the other was intercepted by a US warship in what is believed to be the first ever strike on the military base.
The precise timing of the incident is as yet unknown, though the Government confirmed on Saturday that it took place before Keir Starmer gave the go-ahead to for Donald Trump to use UK-based bombers threatening the Strait of Hormuz.
Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch has accused the Prime Minister of a ‘cover up’ on the details and questioned why the public were not told ‘sooner’.
The IDF confirmed the Diego Garcia attack was the first time Iran had launched a long-range missile, capable of reaching a distance of around 4,000km, since the start of the war.
‘The Iranian terrorist regime poses a global threat. Now, with missiles that can reach London, Paris or Berlin,’ it added.
Hours after the strike, Iran declared it had ‘missile dominance…over the skies of the occupied territories’ and warned its ‘new tactics and launch systems’ would leave the US and Israel ‘astonished’.
Diego Garcia lies around 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran – undermining the regime’s previous assertion that its ballistic missiles could only reach 2,000 km (1,240 miles).
Analysts believe Tehran used intermediate range ballistic missiles – or even used a space launch vehicle to enable the weapons to reach Diego Garcia.
Iran’s Simorgh space launch vehicle, for example, could offer greater range ‘at the likely cost of terminal accuracy’, said Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defence think-tank.
Steve Prest, a retired Royal Navy commodore, added: ‘Ballistic missiles are space rockets. They launch, they go really high up and they come down really fast. If you’ve got a space programme, you’ve got a ballistic missile programme.’
A view of Iranian missiles seen in the skies over Gaza after Iran launched retaliatory strikes in response to attacks by the United States and Israel in Gaza City, Gaza on March 01, 2026
The strike on Diego Garcia took place just seven days after Israeli forces struck Iran’s main space research centre in Tehran, amid fears it was being used to ‘develop satellite attack capabilities in space’.
Experts have warned that if Iran has greater military prowess, the missile threat could now extend well beyond the Middle East and within distance of most capital cities in Western Europe.
This includes Paris, which is 4,198km (2,609 miles) from Tehran, while London lies on the ‘edge of vulnerability’ at around 4,435km (2,750 miles).
The unnerving analysis comes as General Sir Richard Barrons, who headed the UK’s Joint Forces Command between 2013 and 2016, said Iran’s power may have been ‘serially underestimated’.
The former forces chief was responding to questions over whether Trump was right to say the UK had done ‘too little and too late’ or whether opponents of the war were correct that the UK had been sucked into an American war.
He added: ‘Both could be true. War generally does not follow a script and the enemy always gets a vote and, in this case, the enemy’s vote, Iran, has been serially underestimated.
‘We are where we are – this conflict and the way it has turned out now puts British interests and those of our allies at risk and ignoring it completely is no longer appropriate even if the decisions at the start of the conflict were very different.
‘Iran and the UK have been at odds for a very long time. The Iranian regime regards the UK as an enemy and so if you are seen to participate in some fashion with this US-Israeli offensive action then they are clearly going to respond and we should not be surprised.’
General Sir Richard said the UK was helping the US to ‘apply military force’, adding: ‘We have obligations to them and we may not have thought this was a good idea at the start and we may not have wanted to get involved but now in the way this has turned out, we are involved.’
Asked about the US President’s apparently contradictory comments last night about possibly ending the war or considering the use of ground troops, he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that there had been a ‘mismatch’ between ‘the objectives you would like to achieve and the means you are prepared to apply to it’.
He added: ‘They [US and Israel] have got to choose between now announcing victory or stopping or if those objectives really matter to them, they are going to have to escalate it because you can’t do much more with air power so you are beginning to talk about potentially using troops.’
Doubting there would be a full scale invasion of ‘a country the size of Western Europe’, he said: ‘I don’t think anyone really conceives of an invasion and occupation of Iran but they are going to be tempted perhaps to invade Kharg Island or blockade it or attack the praetorial of the Iranian order to remove the military threat.’
Foreign affairs analyst Nawaf Al-Thani also reacted to the Diego Garcia strikes on social media, saying that a long-held assumption about Iran’s missile capability ‘has just collapsed’.
He added: ‘For years, the accepted ceiling was around 2,000 kilometres. A ballistic missile reaching Diego Garcia suggests something in the neighbourhood of 4,000 kilometres, which pushes it out of the medium-range category and into the intermediate-range class (IRBM). That is a strategic leap.
‘The real story is not whether the missile was intercepted. It is that Iran may have demonstrated reach far beyond what much of the world believed it possessed.
‘Paris comes into range. London moves much closer to the edge of vulnerability depending on launch point and payload.
‘This would mean the missile threat is no longer confined to the Gulf, Israel, or parts of South Asia. It would mean the radius of deterrence, defence, and fear has expanded dramatically.
‘If confirmed, Diego Garcia was not just a target. It was a message.’
Just hours before the missiles were fired, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warned Sir Keir had placed British lives ‘in danger’ by consenting to Trump’s request to use B-52s and other aircraft flying out of RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia to blast Iranian missile sites blocking threatening the Strait of Hormuz.
Posting on X, he said: ‘Vast majority of the British People do not want any part in the Israel-US war of choice on Iran.
‘Ignoring his own People, Mr Starmer is putting British lives in danger by allowing UK bases to be used for aggression against Iran.’
Friday night’s action comes at the start of the third week of the conflict and coincides with a strike by US and Israeli forces against the Natanz uranium-enrichment facility on Saturday. No radioactive leaks occurred and residents near the site were not at risk, Tasnim news agency reported.
Joint forces also struck an ammunition airbase in the western Iranian city of Dezful, in Khuzestan province, as Israel pledged that attacks on Iran would ‘significantly increase’ in the coming days.
The US meanwhile reported that it has hit more than 8,000 military targets since the conflict began.
A Ministry of Defence spokesman today described Iran’s actions against the military base as a ‘threat’ to UK interests.
They said: ‘Iran’s reckless attacks, lashing out across the region and holding hostage the Strait of Hormuz, are a threat to British interests and British allies.
‘RAF jets and other UK military assets are continuing to defend our people and personnel in the region. This Government has given permission to the US to use British bases for specific and limited defensive operations.’
The Government has not however confirmed the precise timing of the strike, with Ms Badenoch urging Sir Keir to ‘come clean’ over the details.
The Conservative leader told The Telegraph: ‘Keir Starmer has dithered and delayed on the Iran conflict from the outset.
‘Now we find out, from the media and not the Prime Minister, that the British base on Diego Garcia has been the target of Iranian missile attacks.
‘The Prime Minister needs to immediately come clean about the details of this latest attack on British troops and explain why the public weren’t informed sooner.’
Diego Garcia is strategically valuable to the US, having been used as a launchpad for operations in the Middle East for years. It has a large airfield, major fuel storage facilities, radar installations and a deep-water port.
Prior to Iran’s strike against the base, Trump had told reporters on Friday that the US was considering ‘winding down’ military action.
The president added in his remarks that the US military was ‘getting very close’ to meeting its objectives in the war.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio rejected the comments last month and claimed that Iran was ‘certainly trying to achieve intercontinental ballistic missiles’, adding that Tehran’s nuclear capabilities were ‘headed in the pathway to one day being able to develop weapons that can reach the continental US’.
Trump blasted the UK Government while speaking to reporters outside the White House on Friday, accusing British leadership of a slow response to allow the US to use their bases.
‘It’s been a very late response from the UK. I’m surprised because the relationship is so good, but this has never happened before,’ he said.
Trump said that the UK initially did not want to allow the US to use its island for the Diego Garcia base.
Sir Keir had previously only allowed British bases to be used by the US when targeting Iranian missile launchers attacking the UK and its allies, and not for defending traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Prime Minister has stood firm that the country would not be dragged into the war in Iran.
‘We will protect our people in the region,’ Sir Keir told Parliament earlier this week.
‘We will take action to defend ourselves and our allies, and we will not be drawn into the wider war.’
The US and Israel have maintained that the main motivation for military action in Iran is to prevent the development of a nuclear weapon.
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